OMKARA CAPITAL – DAILY NEWSLETTER (10th June, 2026)
IF YOU CAN OVERTHINK THE WORST, WHY CAN'T YOU OVERTHINK THE BEST?
HEADLINES
• US-Iran fighting continues, with the USA still claiming the war is ending soon – crude was down 4% yesterday, and the Dow Jones saw a recovery of over 600 points intra-day
• World is focused on the SpaceX listing on 12th June (let this event also end soon)
• Financials – especially banks – and the INR are in a happy mood in India following the important RBI measures on FCNR-B and ECB, which can boost forex inflows.
MARKET COMMENTARY: IF YOU CAN OVERTHINK THE WORST, WHY CAN'T YOU OVERTHINK THE BEST?
I love this quote: "If you can overthink the worst, why can't you overthink the best?".
But right now, if I say anything good about India, I sound like a salesman. Yet consider the possibilities – IF the war is sorted out in a few weeks, IF crude drops further, IF the rupee appreciates to 92, or IF the Indian government acts on FII taxation. I know this may sound too good to be true, or even like hallucination as many will say – but even one of these four outcomes would be great for the Indian markets.
In my view, it is all about positioning. Right now, everyone has given up on India for so many reasons, but the truth is that the most money was made over the last 3 months (whether trading or investing) – provided you were in the right sectors and stocks. Thank God, we were in the right lane. I continue to believe that going ahead too, it will be very stock-specific rather than Index-driven.
I was reading the SBI economist's report today by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, who is widely respected. The report says a $55-65 billion inflow will push the rupee to ~92/$ and the BoP into surplus in FY27: deposit growth could jump to 14.5%, and the credit-deposit gap in FY27 may narrow to less than 2% from a peak of 6.7% in FY24. It also notes that it is premature to talk of an imminent rate-hike cycle. Few will believe this, but as I said yesterday – big government measures are never wasted; they take time to show up in the system, but they eventually do.
Right now, I am focused on building and rolling out the forum and new website once we have checked all the bugs this week. The team is studying new ideas and attending conferences, and is in no rush to reshuffle the portfolio unless there is a huge margin of safety alongside growth.
Stay cool and patient – good times are coming soon.
Warm regards,
Omkara Capital Private Limited, India
www.omkaracapital.in
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
