OMKARA CAPITAL – DAILY NEWSLETTER (22nd July 2026): PART B
Stay Boring. Believe in silent winners.
Life moves on. Time is the biggest healer. Valuations are the biggest truth in the stock markets
There was a time when we used to worry too much about the Russian-Ukraine war, and then we worried almost a year about the Trump tariff as well. Then came a time when we all worried so much about the USA-Iran war.
Crude oil is at a two-month high, up nearly 20% from the lows, but still, I don't think that the Indian market, especially, and even the global markets are worried too much about what is happening between USA and Iran.
In the last few months, we have seen profit booking happening in the AI tech-driven sector, where indexes are down by 25% to 30% & individual stocks are down by 30%, 40%, and 50% as well. And yet Indian markets are holding and consolidating. So, what's the lesson?
Clearly, it is all about valuations.
- First, Trump is not God. Markets are now ignoring Trump's threats and have moved on, as people now understand there is enough supply of crude oil in the world to dismantle any country. Indian markets & especially businesses have not seen any big damage in earnings post the war – just look at earnings from Bajaj Auto/ TVS/ Karus Vyasa/ Fed Bank/ Borosil/ Granules/ NBFCs – all are shining bright. Great managements know how to run business despite problems and hence betting on right management remains critical
- 2nd: Valuations is the biggest SAYTA: the markets move in the last few months is purely on valuations. It is not that the Microns of the world or the Hynix of the world or Samsungs of the world are bad companies. It is just that at one point in time, the world was chasing only four or five names with full leverage here and there. Certainly, people realize that the valuations are peaking for whatever reasons. And on the other side, people realize that Indian markets are growing strong with structural triggers. Macro fundamentals are improving, and hence you need to put some money in India as well, so the rotation has started happening from trading bets to structural bets.
I still cannot believe and even understand how billions of dollars can be invested in any markets or stocks where the volatility could be 20%, 30%, or 40%. As a Baniya investor, I'm very happy with the slow winners and structural bets where volatility is less.
Hype, narratives, stories all look sexy and with leverage – it is adding oil to the fire. Biggest winners in the stock markets are silent. I have never seen Sansera/ Happy/ Craftsman/ Shriram Piston/ SJS/ Shyam coming daily on TVs and making big statements or even heard big stories around them.
Stay Boring. Believe in silent winners. Risk management is the weapon – use it properly. And stay shaant during the earnings season. NO adventures plz.
Warm regards,
Omkara Capital Private Limited
www.omkaracapital.in
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
