OMKARA CAPITAL – DAILY NEWSLETTER (24th July 2026)

Crude jitters are back, as its back above USD 100

MY OPINION: War accelerated and validated India's energy diversification strategy
While crude oil approaching USD 100/bbl is certainly not comforting, the market reaction is often more severe than the underlying impact on India's physical energy security.

India's energy security has strengthened significantly over the past few years. Before the recent geopolitical disruptions, India sourced crude from around 27 countries, with nearly 45% of imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia accounted for barely 2% of India's crude imports in 2021.

Since then, Indian refiners have rapidly diversified their sourcing. Today, India imports around 5.2–5.25 million barrels of crude oil per day from nearly 40 countries. Russia has emerged as the largest supplier, accounting for roughly half of monthly crude imports, while the balance is sourced from the Middle East, the US, Latin America and Africa.

More importantly, around 70% of India's crude imports now arrive through non-Hormuz routes, compared with about 55% before the recent conflicts. This has significantly reduced India's dependence on any single region or shipping route.

Higher crude prices can still create short-term pressure on inflation and the current account.

However, from a physical supply perspective, India is far better positioned today than it was just a few years ago. The country's diversified sourcing strategy has made its energy security considerably more resilient to geopolitical disruptions.

Markets have run-up from lows and many stocks have moved even 50-100% from the recent lows – it is but natural after 13th consecutive day of ongoing war between USA & Iran that some profit booking or margin pressure could be seen in some individual stocks. But, we see all this as an opportunity for an INVESTOR to build up the portfolio with a clear focus on next few years and not days.

EARNINGS REVIEW
HSBC increase target price on IIFL Finance to Rs 760 from Rs 650. Broker says stock trades at 6x FY28e EPS/1.2x BVPS; we expect it to deliver 3-3.6% ROA and 19-21% ROE over FY27-29e

Good earnings

1. Fractal Oil Q1FY27 Earnings Review: Revenue ₹913 cr (+20% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA ₹154 cr (+35% YoY) — margin 16.8% (+189 bps YoY). Operating EBIT ₹103 cr (+42% YoY) — margin 11.3% (+175 bps YoY). PAT ₹72 cr (+92% YoY) — margin 7.9% (+296 bps YoY). PAT excl. associate losses ₹96 cr (+59% YoY)

In-line earnings

1. Motilal Oswal 1QFY27 earnings review: posts steady Q1FY27 with revenue up 8% YoY; operating PAT dips 8% QoQ on higher costs, but record total PAT of ₹1,513 cr driven by treasury gains; ARR mix and AUA both at new highs. Net revenue ₹1,538 cr, up 8% YoY and 1% QoQ; PBT ₹792 cr (+11% YoY, -7% QoQ) at a 52% margin (+200 bps YoY)

Weak earnings•

1. Infosys Q1FY27 review: posted weaker than expected Q1FY27 results. Revenue grew +1% CC QoQ, significantly below street’s estimate of +2% CC QoQ. EBIT margin was 21.1%, +10bp QoQ, broadly in-line. Management revised FY27 revenue growth guidance to 1.5–3% (from 1.5–3.5%). TCV declined -5.2% YoY to USD3.6bn. The board also announced a new CEO, Mr Ashiss Dash, an internal promotion.
2. Indigo 1QFY27 review: Higher fuel costs drive Q1 miss; Q2 weak- EBITDAR missed cons est by ~20% on elevated fuel costs, partly offset by higher yield (+21% YoY). Passenger vols +1% YoY to 31.3mn despite geopolitical disruptions & selective capacity redns. Mgmt clarified that bills raised by OMC’s from April to 8th June have been settled according to the agreed pricing formula. Mgmt expects higher fuel costs & +25% PRASK in 2Q.

Warm regards,
Omkara Capital Private Limited
www.omkaracapital.in

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.