OMKARA CAPITAL – DAILY NEWSLETTER (27th July 2026)

Reports: TRUMP HALTS PLANNED IRAN STRIKES.
The USA has reportedly proposed a temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the previous Memorandum of Understanding, with discussions also expected to include Yemen, according to sources.

A mini cease-fire is coming. Let’s focus on individual companies & earnings and concalls. Lot of super names to focus.

Any Guidance increase?

1. IDFC First Bank - FY27 RoA guidance upgraded to around 1%, driven by ~5bp improvement in NIM guidance | 20bp reduction in expected credit cost | FY27 NIM guidance raised 5bp to ~5.80% from 5.75%

Any Guidance decrease?
• NA

Guidance Maintained?

1. One Source: With all this, we really remain confident and are happy to reiterate our FY28 outlook of 400 million organic revenue, as well as, you know, EBITDA margins of 40%
2. CreditAccess Grameen - Medium-term AUM target of ~INR500b by CY28 reiterated | ~250k new borrowers added in 1QFY27, ~35% new-to-credit | Credit cost guidance of ~3-4% reiterated
3. AUBANK - RoA 1.7%, comfort range 1.7-1.8% with ~1.8% targeted
4. Shriram Finance - FY27 AUM growth guidance maintained at ~18% | 2QFY27 AUM growth guided at 15-16% YoY | Cost-to-income improved to 25.5% from 29.3% YoY
5. Bank of Baroda - FY27 guidance - credit growth 12-14%, deposit growth 10-12%, C/D 84-86%, NIM 2.75-2.95%
6. Spandana Sphoorty – AUM target of INR60-65b by end-FY27 and ~INR100b by end-FY28 | RoA to improve meaningfully through FY27 toward ~1%, with ~3.5% targeted in FY28 | FY27 gross credit cost guidance maintained at 2.5-3%

GOOD EARNINGS

1. Lodha posts a blowout Q1FY27 review — Datacenter pricing jumps, development plan expanded. Revenue up 43%, EBITDA nearly doubles, PAT more than doubles YoY; collections surge 46% and debt continues to fall. Revenue ₹5,000 cr (+43.1% YoY); Adj. EBITDA ₹2,150 cr (+79.1% YoY), margin 43.0% (+860 bps YoY). FY27 pre-sales guidance ₹24,000 cr (H1 expected to be low 40s% of full year); implied FY27 PAT ~₹4,100 cr (~20% growth over FY26).
2. Shriram Finance Q1FY27 review: PAT beat estimates by nearly 20%, while RoA reached 3.9%. Margins improved 41bp sequentially, producing a strong earnings beat. Shriram posts sharp PAT jump on MUFG capital infusion; balance sheet strengthened, AUM growth guidance intact at 18% for FY27. Capital adequacy ratio jumped to 34.17% from 20.79% a year ago; debt-equity ratio improved sharply to 2.14x from 4.15x — both driven by MUFG's ₹39,618 cr equity infusion in April 2026. FY27 AUM growth guidance of 18% retained; Q2 disbursement growth guided at >15% YoY; MSME targeting ₹7,000 cr+ run rate from Q3.
3. CreditAccess Grameen Q1FY27 review: PAT BEAT estimates by nearly 30%, with RoA at 5.9%. Co delivers a sharp recovery quarter — PAT up 720% YoY, NIM expands, asset quality back to pre-crisis levels, and ₹50,000 cr AUM target reaffirmed. Total Net Income ₹1,234 cr (+25.8% YoY, +10.2% QoQ); NII ₹1,164 cr (+24.2% YoY). PPoP ₹873 cr (+33.6% YoY); PAT ₹493 cr (+719.7% YoY, +45.3% QoQ). NIM 14.4% (vs 12.8% Q1FY26); cost-to-income 29.3% (vs 33.5% Q1FY26); ROA 5.9% (TTM: 4.0%), ROE 24.4% (TTM: 16.0%). ₹50,000 cr AUM target by CY2028 reaffirmed; no additional capital needed; FY27 credit cost guidance held at 3.0%-4.0%.
4. Dr. Lal Pathlabs Q1FY27 review: posts strongest quarterly revenue growth in 4 years — volumes, margins, and profit all beat comfortably. Revenue ₹798 cr, up 19.1% YoY — highest quarterly growth in 4 years. FY27 revenue growth guidance upgraded to mid-teens (from early-teens earlier); EBITDA margin framework kept at 27-28%, to be reviewed after H1.
5. Onesource Specialty Pharma Q1FY27 review: revenue up 37% YoY; FY28 $400M / 40% EBITDA margin target reiterated as DDC capacity ramps. EBITDA: ₹1,233M, +39% YoY and +34% QoQ. Outlook: Sequential improvement expected in H2 FY27 as DDC lines ramp. FY28 target: $400M organic revenue at 40% EBITDA margin reiterated; ~$100M multi-site capex underway, 80% committed.
6. IDFC First Bank Q1FY27 review: posts record quarterly PAT of ₹1,075 cr, up 132% YoY, as asset quality hits all-time best and loan book crosses ₹3 lakh crore. NII ₹5,972 cr (+21.1% YoY); Operating Income ₹8,282 cr (+15.7% YoY); Core Operating Profit (ex-trading gain) ₹2,371 cr (+36.0% YoY, +58.9% QoQ). PPOP ₹2,553 cr (+14.0% YoY, +91.6% QoQ); Provisions fell 31.1% YoY to ₹1,144 cr; PAT ₹1,075 cr (+132.4% YoY) — first time above ₹1,000 cr. NIM 5.96% (+25 bps YoY); RoA 1.06% (+52 bps YoY). MFI portfolio degrowth has bottomed out and the book has begun growing again; 93% of MFI book covered under CGFMU.
7. AU Small Finance Bank Q1FY27 review: posts strong Q1FY27 — NII up 32% YoY, PAT up 37% YoY, NIM expands 47 bps YoY, asset quality improves, and in-principle Universal Bank approval received. PAT ₹796 cr (+37% YoY, -4% QoQ); NIM 5.9% (+47 bps YoY, -7 bps QoQ); Cost of Funds 6.48% (-60 bps YoY). RoA 1.7% (+18 bps YoY); RoE 15.6% (+230 bps YoY); EPS ₹10.6 (+36% YoY). Management guides RoA to move from 1.7% to 1.8% within 6–9 months, driven by lower opex, falling credit costs, and normalisation of other income; cost-to-assets expected to improve in FY27 ex-CGFMU.
8. Bank of India Q1FY27 review: net profit up 36% YoY, asset quality at multi-year best, operating profit surges 26% with cost-to-income improving sharply. NII ₹6,833 cr (+12.6% YoY); non-interest income ₹2,579 cr (+19.1% YoY); operating profit ₹5,051 cr (+26.0% YoY). FY27 guidance: advances growth 15-16%, deposits 13-14%, RoA at or above 1.0%, NIM 2.5-2.6%, cost-to-income 48-49%.
9. DCB Bank Q1FY27 review: posts strongest quarterly PAT on record — asset quality improves sharply, NIM expands, ROE crosses 13.5% target. PAT ₹213 cr (+36% YoY, +4% QoQ) — strongest quarterly print in recent trend. NIM 3.35% (Q1FY26: 3.20%); ROA 0.96% (Q1FY26: 0.81%); ROE 13.61% (Q1FY26: 11.56%). NIM target 350–365 bps; Gross NPA below 2.50%, Net NPA below 1.00%; ROA target 1%+; ROE target 13.5% in FY27, 14.5% in FY28.
10. Suryoday Small Finance Bank Q1FY27 review: PAT more than doubles YoY as provisions fall sharply; NIM compresses 70 bps QoQ but asset quality and returns improve meaningfully. NII ₹316 cr (+27.8% YoY, flat QoQ); Net Total Income ₹464 cr (+30.3% YoY). PPoP ₹139 cr (+27.2% YoY, +29.5% QoQ); PAT ₹75 cr (+113.1% YoY, +51.2% QoQ) driven by sharp drop in provisions to ₹37 cr (-41% YoY). NIM 7.2% (flat YoY, -70 bps QoQ); RoA 1.6% (+63 bps YoY); RoE 14.5% (+724 bps YoY). FY27 guidance: advances and deposit growth 30-35% YoY; RoA 1.3-1.4%, RoE 13-14%; GNPA target ~3% (CGFMU-adjusted); 100 new branches planned.
11. SBFC Finance Q1FY27 review: delivers steady Q1FY27 — AUM up 27% YoY, PAT crosses ₹130 cr, but disbursements soft. Total income ₹492 cr, up 26.5% YoY and 8.2% QoQ. Pre-provisioning operating profit (PPoP) ₹216 cr, up 34.4% YoY; PAT ₹130 cr, up 29% YoY. NIM/average AUM 10.68%; RoA (RoAAUM) 4.53%; RoE (RoATE) 14.73% (+120 bps YoY). Credit cost guided at 1.4%-1.5% for Q2-Q3 FY27; opex/AUM expected to fall ~25 bps in FY27 to ~4.0% as newer branches mature.
12. Monolithisch India - Q1FY27 Results Update - record quarter on every line. Guidance for 250 cr Sales in FY27e vs 135 cr in FY26; new capacity coming onstream in September. Revenue, EBITDA, PAT and volume are all all-time highs. Volume 52,000 MT (+73% YoY). ⁠Realisation of Rs. 9.1/kg compared to Rs. 8.1/kg for FY26; ahead of Raghav (~8.9 per kg in Q1FY27). ⁠Revenue: Rs. 47 cr, up 64% YoY and 16% QoQ. ⁠EBITDA (operating): Rs 13 cr, up 99% YoY, with margin at 27.8% against 22.9% a year ago. ⁠PAT: Rs. 10 cr, up 135% YoY and 24% QoQ.
13. Spandana Sphoorty Financial Q1FY27 review: Turns operationally profitable in Q1FY27 — NII up sharply, asset quality improving, but AUM guidance trimmed and disbursements remain muted. AUM ₹4,887 cr (+11% QoQ); disbursements ₹1,371 cr (-11% QoQ, muted due to seasonality); gross collection efficiency improved to 95.9% from 94.7%. NIM 12.5% (vs 9.9% QoQ); RoA 0.7% (vs 0.3% QoQ); RoE 2.2% (vs 1.0% QoQ); credit cost 3.6% (vs 3.8% QoQ). FY27 AUM exit guidance trimmed to slightly above ₹6,000 cr (from ₹6,500 cr); disbursements guided at ₹6,000–6,500 cr; gross credit cost 2.5%–3.0%; net credit cost near nil if ₹150–200 cr of 90+ recoveries materialise; FY27 opex ~₹675 cr.

IN-LINE EARNINGS

1. Bank of Baroda Q1FY27 review: core performance was steady — NII up 10% YoY, asset quality improved — but a one-off USD 600 mn provision crushed reported PAT; adjusted PAT of ₹5,528 cr and RoA of 1.10% tell the real story. Underlying RoA remained around 1.1%. FY27 guidance: credit growth 12-14%, deposit growth 10-12%, NIM 2.8-3.0%, credit cost ≤0.6%, slippage 1.0-1.3%; ROE 15-16%; ROA >1.0% expected from Q2 onwards (full-year ROA guidance deferred to post-Q2).
2. SAIL Q1FY27 review: In line with est, higher realization has mitigated the impact of lower sales volume. During the quarter, sales volume declined by 8.6% YoY due to advancing certain scheduled repairs and maintenance work during the quarter. Revenue ₹26,010 cr (up ~0.3% YoY, down ~16% QoQ); EBITDA ₹4,356 cr, margin 16.7% (vs 10.7% in Q1FY26, 14.3% in Q4FY26 per review).
3. Tanfac Q1FY27 review: posts modest revenue growth but margins dip YoY as sulphur costs and West Asia disruptions weigh; HFC-32 plant on track for Jan 2027 ramp-up. HFC-32 plant targeted for commissioning by end of Q3FY27, with production from January 2027; secured 12,500+ MTPA in customer agreements worth ~₹649 cr per annum including a 7-year deal with a Japanese customer.

WEAK EARNINGS

1. Shakti Pumps Q1FY27 review: margins collapse as expected. Revenue up 38% YoY but margins collapsed sharply — EBITDA margin fell to 9.6% from 23.1% a year ago, dragging PAT down nearly 46% YoY. EBITDA ₹83 cr, margin 9.6% — down sharply from 23.1% in Q1FY26 and 9.7% in Q4FY26.
2. Birla Corp Q1FY27 review: Higher OPEX (Packaging cost + Industrial Diesel Rs 150 to 180/t) impacts profitability. Realization and Volume growth was in-line! EBITDA/t was 677 vs Rs 927 QoQ vs Rs 724 YoY. Co withdraws FY27 EBITDA guidance amid soft Central India prices and rising costs — near-term outlook cloudy. Q1 saw cost inflation of Rs150/ton; Q2 faces an additional Rs70-80/ton geopolitical cost hit.

Warm regards,
Omkara Capital Private Limited
www.omkaracapital.in

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.