OMKARA CAPITAL – DAILY NEWSLETTER (2nd June, 2026)
MARKET COMMENTARY: US–India deal or US–Iran deal — which comes first?
Headlines
• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that 99% of the India–US trade deal negotiations have been completed.
• President Trump has temporarily reduced tariffs on agricultural and industrial equipment from 25% to 15% (within our coverage, Happy Forgings, Sansera, and Bharat Forge have exposure to the US market).
• US–Iran negotiations remain ongoing, with no formal announcement to date.
Stocks in news
• Textile stocks in focus as the US–India trade deal nears finalisation.
• IT stocks: all major technology ADRs closed higher in the previous session.
• Northern Arc is meeting investors today; we will share key takeaways in due course.
• Tega earnings call scheduled for today — an important event to track.
MARKET COMMENTARY: US–India deal or US–Iran deal — which comes first?
Scarcely a day passes without a deluge of news flow. The analyst's role has shifted from poring over balance sheets and cash flow statements to continuously tracking headlines. Compounding the challenge, the narrative shifts by the minute, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions.
Iran has expressed displeasure over continuing Israeli strikes. President Trump has reportedly engaged Israel and assured Iran that further attacks will cease, while indicating that talks with Iran are progressing at pace. He has also characterised Iran's response to the Israeli strike on Lebanon as a 'glitch'. Readers should treat all of this with caution, as the situation remains fluid.
Our sense is that the India–US deal will likely be concluded ahead of the US–Iran agreement, and we expect news flow on both fronts before the month is out.
Momentum and news flow in US technology and AI names remain pronounced. NVIDIA has unveiled the RTX Spark, which has the potential to be the most significant shake-up in PC hardware in years. Three private giants — SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — are preparing for IPOs with a cumulative valuation of approximately USD 4 trillion. This is, quite simply, a different order of magnitude.
In India, we observed profit-booking in power stocks alongside renewed interest in IT and technology names. Whether this represents sector rotation or a more durable trend change is unclear at this stage. We remain on the sidelines in the power sector on valuation grounds, and we continue to find the technology sector difficult to underwrite given the uncertain implications of AI going forward.
Amid the prevailing scepticism around India's absence from the AI narrative, a constructive data point is worth highlighting: India now accounts for over 70% of Boeing's manufacturing sourcing. India may not be a disruptor — it has rarely been one — but it clearly offers scale, and some selected companies are establishing themselves as permanent fixtures in global supply chains. Names such as Bharat Forge, CG Power, Sansera, and Happy Forgings have uniquely positioned themselves as global supply-chain vendors, largely insulated from AI-driven disruption. A similar dynamic is playing out across several Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals companies. In these sectors, our preference is to back capability and scale. The thesis is straightforward.
We remain comfortable owning unglamorous names and added to our positions in Gokaldas and Tega in yesterday's session. We will share our key takeaways from the Tega earnings call later today.
Warm regards,
Omkara Capital Private Limited, India
www.omkaracapital.in
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
